Optimal allocation of resources to manage multiple threats

Allocation of resources to environmental problems has a relatively simple solution when threats to the environment can be considered independently and there is a single management objective; it is optimal to invest in the actions in particular locations when the marginal benefits of management are greatest.

Uncertainty in the effectiveness of actions and the prevalence of dependencies and feedbacks pose significant challenges to the effective and efficient allocation of conservation resources. Added to these complexities however are the little studied impacts of multiple threats that might interact in synergistic ways, and the directives of policy deeming the identification of actions that address more than one objective or abate more than one threat to be most desired (e.g., to sequester carbon, enhance the provision of water, and also conserve biodiversity). Under such circumstances, trade-offs will prevail and perverse outcomes are possible.

We are developing and evaluating methods to predict the impact of multiple threats and develop novel decision theory methods for dealing with uncertainty in the effectiveness of actions when managing interacting threats.

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Wilson, K. A., E. Meijaard, S. Drummond, H. S. Grantham, L. Boitani, G. Catullo, L. Christie, R. Dennis, I. Dutton, A. Falcucci, L. Maiorano, H. P. Possingham, C. Rondinini, W. Turner, O. Venter, and M. Watts. 2010. Conserving Biodiversity in Production Landscapes. Ecological Applications. 20 (6): 1721-1732. doi: 10.1890/09-1051.1